Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which delivers natural gas to Europe, has already seen a 60% reduction in gas exports since mid-June, and Goldman Sachs warned they may stay low for a while.
Nord Stream 1 is scheduled for maintenance July 11 to 21, during which gas flows will be halted. While Goldman analysts previously expected gas deliveries to be fully restored after the maintenance, it no longer sees that as the most probable scenario, according to a note Monday.
“The lack of resolution around required turbine repairs, and the absence of any Gazprom-driven rerouting of the reduced NS1 flows via an alternative pipeline to mitigate the impact to supply suggest a prolonged reduced flow rate at NS1 is more likely going forward,” the analysts wrote.
Natural gas prices in Europe have jumped 70% since Gazprom slashed Nord Stream flows last month. And with the likelihood they will stay low, Goldman raised its price forecasts for Europe, pointing to added supply risks. Benchmark gas prices are trading at the highest mark in four months, Bloomberg data shows.
Meanwhile, the surge in energy prices will ultimately weigh on demand, and the IEA said Tuesday that global natural gas demand growth will shrink 60% by 2024.
The IEA also warned earlier that Europe should prepare for a full cut-off of Russian gas as the Kremlin leverages its energy exports to retaliate against Western sanctions imposed after President Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine.
But a full cut to Nord Stream flows remains Goldman’s least likely scenario, as it would eliminate much of Russia’s revenue from gas sales and limit upside.
Leave a Comment