Can Europe strengthen its energy independence in the face of the Russia-Ukraine crisis without compromising its climate change goals? Goldman Sachs Research uses its Carbonomics framework to model the evolution of Europe’s energy system towards a lower cost, lower imports, lower carbon system. Goldman Sachs Research analysis leads to five main conclusions:
1. Cumulative infrastructure investments of €10 trn will be needed by 2050 for Europe’s energy transformation, reaching the equivalent of >2% of GDP by 2030.
2. Europe’s new energy system would improve affordability.
3. Natural gas remains key to Europe’s energy supply for the next two decades.
4. Renewable power will be at the heart of Europe’s future energy system, but seasonality, heavy industry and transport will require a major green hydrogen economy to complement the ecosystem.
5. An inter-connected European system of power networks and hydrogen pipelines will be required to substitute hydrocarbon imports with clean energy flows from low cost producers such as Iberia, parts of Southern Europe and the UK to the rest of Europe.