Banking Sector Implications
For banks, a higher deposit insurance cap would mean higher premiums, and in turn, higher expenses. The FDIC assesses deposit insurance rates based on a variety of factors, such as risk and complexity, and expenses for banks are generally proportional to asset size.
When the FDIC last raised the cap in 2008, it increased the insurance assessment rate. The agency is expected to propose further changes to the rate, as well as the types and sizes of deposits to insure, in its report to Congress on the recent banking failures, due May 1. The FDIC report is also expected to include guidance on a special assessment on the banking industry, likely excluding community banks. This would help to shore up a $128 billion deposit insurance fund, as the cost of guarantees on deposits at recently failed U.S. banks are estimated to total $22.5 billion. According to a 2020 FDIC report, 85% of assets are held in banks that aren’t classified community banks—meaning a vast majority of deposit-holding financial institutions could be subject to the special assessment, and see costs increase as a result.
Whatever happens with the FDIC insurance rate and special assessment, banks with at least $100 billion in assets are likely to face liquidity requirements equal to banks with $250 billion to $700 billion in assets, if not stricter thresholds, according to Morgan Stanley banking analysts.
Debt-Ceiling Impact
In addition to impacts on the banking sector, investors are concerned about how any policy response to the turmoil—including government guarantees and the expectation of further support should volatility return—will affect the debt ceiling: Will this additional spending pull forward the so-called X date (the projected point when the U.S. will exhaust its ability to borrow and the potential for adverse market and economic impacts spike sharply)?
Even with the government interventions, Morgan Stanley Research still estimates that the X-date will be early August, though the end of tax season should bring more clarity on the timing for when the Treasury will run out of cash. “The main factors affecting the debt ceiling limit continue to be the timing and magnitude of outlays and tax receipts,” says Salvatore.
In fact, the $27 billion that the FDIC pulled from the Treasury could have helped to create some space under the current limit. “This would allow the Treasury to issue more debt, likely via T-bills, to cover the FDIC outflows,” says Salvatore. “Looking ahead, we continue to expect the debt limit to keep the Treasury General Account trending lower over the coming months as we approach the X date.”
Source: morganstanley.com
