The world is getting older — and with that demographic change comes “significant” investment opportunities, according to Goldman Sachs. Fertility rates are declining and people are living longer, resulting in an older demographic taking a larger share of the total population. The global population is expected to rise by about 20% through 2050, said analyst Evan Tylenda, EMEA head of Goldman Sustain, the firm’s investment research team dedicated to finding the best environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments. But the number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double, to 1.6 billion from 800 million, over the same time, according to United Nations data . “In developed markets, spending habits change as individuals age and vary between different generations, with implications for growth and investment opportunities,” Tylenda wrote in a report last Wednesday. “In both the United States and Europe, older individuals dedicate a higher percentage of total spending to healthcare and housing, while spending less on transportation and insurance/pensions,” he added. Goldman sees tailwinds in three areas: health care, senior living and care and entertainment and experiences. Health care As people age, health-care spending rises as they deal with more medical issues, such as heart attacks, hearing loss, diabetes and depression. In 2021, those over 65 in the United States accounted for 36% of health care spending, despite making up 18% of the population, according to an analysis by KFF of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey , which the nonprofit conducts in partnership with the Peterson Center on Healthcare. A separate analysis by Goldman of data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that personal health-care spending per capita for those over 60 in the U.S. is about 2,400% greater on cardiovascular disease, 970% more on neurological disorders and 550% more on diabetes than those under the age of 45. Below are some of the health-care stocks Goldman believes can benefit from the trend. They are all rated a buy at the investment bank. Senior living and care As people grow older they will look for ways to either stay in their home as long as possible or move into senior housing . That means more demand for home care and rehabilitation services, as well as assisted living, nursing facilities and long-term care facilities. Goldman has a buy rating on one U.S.-based company that will benefit from this trend: BrightSpring Health Services . Louisville-based BrightSpring, which came public a year ago in an IPO led by Goldman , provides community and home-health services, as well as infusion services, specialty pharmacy and rehabilitation care. BTSG 1Y mountain Brightspring Health Services over the past year. There are also several real estate investment trusts that provide senior living, like Welltower and Ventas , which are not covered at Goldman. Welltower has an average analyst rating of overweight and is seen by Wall Street as rising 14% over the next 12 months, based on analysts’ consensus price target, according to FactSet. Ventas, which also has an average rating of overweight, has about 21% upside to the average price target, per FactSet. Entertainment and experiences Finally, older generations like to spend their money and time differently than their younger counterparts, Tylenda said. Leisure activities, such as the use of recreational vehicles, cruises and motorcycle riding, are more common among those near retirement age or older, his research found. They also have high levels of pet ownership in their early senior years and allocate more spending to their animals, he said. Goldman has buy ratings on Norwegian Cruise Line , Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises . It also rates pet e-commerce company Chewy a buy. Cruises, which are often less expensive than land-based lodging on a per-night basis, have been enjoying surging demand since they were shuttered during the Covid pandemic.
Source: cnbc.com
