Firm’s senior investment leaders have been speaking at a roundtable.
With 2026 just over a month away, what will be the themes that dominate the investment landscape in the year ahead?
Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s senior investment leaders have been sharing their outlook for 2026 in an annual roundtable, revealing a mix of optimism and heightened complexity, emphasizing that the 2026 may reward thoughtful portfolio construction more than reliance on historical playbooks.
Panelists explored how AI investment, global policy divergence, equity concentration and the democratization of alternatives are reshaping investor decisions across public and private markets.
Multi-asset co-head Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo set the tone with a cautious assessment of the Fed’s next moves. Markets recently downgraded the probability of a December rate cut after “a Wall Street Journal article which referenced December being a coin toss” and a hawkish Powell press conference.
But she stressed that this uncertainty stems not from deteriorating data but from the absence of new information. Inflation remains roughly one percentage point above target, while fiscal conditions stay loose, leaving the Fed without the confidence it needs for a clearer pivot.
Wilson-Elizondo then highlighted one of the most important asset-allocation challenges, namely the declining dependability of the classic 60/40 stock-bond mix, as higher inflation, shifting ownership of sovereign debt and geopolitical stress have weakened the historical diversification benefit.
“You get more amplification in drawdowns,” she noted, particularly when combined with concentrated equity leadership. As a result, GSAM has leaned into new forms of diversification, incorporating alternative risk premia, global quantitative strategies and an expanded toolkit of private market exposures.
Megacap dominance, AI and the global investing reset
On equities, Osman Ali (global co-head of the Quantitative Investment Strategies team) addressed US concentration, a key question dominating client conversations.
The top 10 S&P 500 names now represent close to 40% of the index, and technology-heavy sectors account for roughly half. Ali said that concentration itself is not inherently destabilizing and that today’s leaders, especially AI hyperscalers, are highly profitable and well capitalized.
Still, he warned against complacency because while a passive US-heavy allocation has been rewarding, global diversification has offered equally strong, and sometimes stronger, performance. Over the past three years “European banks have outperformed US mega-cap tech,” and Europe as a whole has slightly outpaced the S&P 500 when the Magnificent Seven are excluded.
Asked about concerns that AI may be facing a risky outcome, he said: “I don’t think we’re in a bubble,” citing the transformative nature of the technology and the corporate fundamentals supporting adoption. However, he expects consolidation among hyperscalers as competition intensifies around large language models, infrastructure scale and talent. Valuation discipline will matter, and misses may be punished more forcefully in 2026.
Fixed income: Steepening potential and cross-market dispersion
Global co-head of fixed income Kay Haigh described a landscape where policy divergence and shifting issuance patterns are likely to reshape curve dynamics.
In the US, he sees room for steepening trades in the five- to ten-year sector, while in Europe, long-end steepeners look compelling due to pension reform technicals.
Haigh noted that today’s bond market behaves more like the pre-2008 era; characterized by less reliable correlations and more macro-driven dispersion.
Duration, once an almost universal hedge, must now be applied more precisely, Ali said, and cautioned that high deficits are shrinking governments’ headroom to act as insurers of last resort, meaning an exogenous shock could produce an exaggerated steepening response.
On credit, he acknowledged that valuations in some investment-grade segments are historically tight but pointed to ongoing opportunities in emerging markets, securitized assets and parts of high yield. Differentiation, he said, is increasingly necessary.
Alternatives: Deal momentum returns and access broadens
On private markets, global head of alternatives for wealth management Kristin Olson highlighted a rejuvenation in private equity deal flow after years of subdued exits.
Valuation gaps have narrowed, M&A and IPO activity are recovering, and investors are seeking DPI after a long drought. Within private equity, she flagged venture and growth as newly attractive following a shift from “growth at all cost” to more disciplined, profitable expansion. The retreat of 2021–2022 “tourist investors” has created a healthier supply-demand balance for capital deployment.
Olson also spotlighted private credit as a core opportunity set for 2026, emphasizing the need for strong origination platforms and rigorous underwriting as competition increases. Meanwhile, evergreen vehicles are accelerating the democratization of alternatives, enabling individuals, particularly through retirement accounts, to access private markets in ways that were not possible a decade ago.
Across the panel, a frequent theme was the rise of dispersion across regions, sectors, styles, and even within private markets.
If 2025 was about adapting to a higher-rate world, GSAM’s leaders framed 2026 as a year where AI investment, global rebalancing and democratized access reshape the investment landscape—and where thoughtful design may be the most critical source of return.
Source: investmentnews.com
