That could mean a 0.4% boost to US GDP in the team’s baseline scenario, or more than 1% if the drugs’ uptake comes in at the high end.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see scope for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” the authors write.
AI may provide a major lift to healthcare
Advances in computational biology, the arrival of big data in healthcare, and a greater understanding of human genomics may also provide a major lift to the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
One example the team cites is the use of AI in drug discovery, which has been shown to shorten the development of successful pre-clinical drug candidates from as much as five years down to as little as 18 months. That could translate into a meaningful improvement in combatting chronic diseases such as cancer, fibrosis, and aging-related diseases, among others.
Gene editing is also a promising area. It involves cutting out or repairing a disease-causing genomic segment, or even inserting “corrected” genes to target diseases. Roughly 30 million Americans have a rare disease, most of which are genetic. New developments such as multiplexing — editing several genes simultaneously — may expand the pool of genetic disorders treatable through this approach.
The US may stand to gain significantly from these advances. Since 1990, all major economies have made notable progress in reducing the burden of disease, with disability-adjusted life years lost declining by nearly 10% per decade. But Americans stand out among their peers in losing more life to disease and disability. The new data-driven therapies could go a long way to helping the US “catch down” to its developed-market counterparts in the level of disease burden. Our researchers estimate that such an acceleration could boost US GDP by 0.5 to 2.5%.
Source: goldmansachs.com
