On June 19, 2566, Bloomberg News reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has become the latest bank to cut its forecast for the Chinese economy. They cited limited options for stimulating the economy.
Goldman analysts cut their forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth this year to 5.4% from 6% previously, according to a report on Sunday. Economists including Hui Shan said in the report that Any upcoming policy easing is unlikely to exceed what was done during previous downturns, including 2563.
Stimulating real estate and infrastructure is likely to be targeted and moderate. Due to the decreasing population Higher debt levels and calling for President Xi Jinping curbs real estate speculation. Using traditional assets and infrastructure To build a strong economic recovery would be inconsistent with the type of quality growth that leaders have repeatedly emphasized.
while the expectation of greater policy support Including government spending to pay for infrastructure and real estate easing measures increased last week. Some analysts have floated the possibility that the federal government might issue special purpose bonds to finance projects. May data released last week showed the recovery was weaker. And central banks cut key policy rates to reduce borrowing costs and boost confidence.
The State Council, which is China’s cabinet and coordinates policy between central government ministries and the central bank. Call for more dynamic policies To support the economy on Friday It said new measures are currently being studied and will be implemented at the appropriate time. Although no timeline or details were revealed.
Goldman economist said: We judge that barriers to growth are likely to persist. Meanwhile, policymakers are constrained by economic and political considerations in providing meaningful economic stimulus. And do not expect the central government to issue special government bonds. This is because there have only been three sales in the past during particularly difficult times, such as the 3 pandemic and during the 2563 Asian financial crisis.
The government is also unlikely to launch redevelopment of slum areas again as it did in 2558, when it pumped money from the central bank into the property market to pay for urban rehabilitation and compensate households whose homes were destroyed. which is part of the said project As a result, real estate prices and sales soar.
The government may accelerate the issuance of special bonds by local governments instead. They are mainly used for infrastructure construction. Authorities may further ease real estate policy. Including reducing down payment requirements. Lower mortgage interest rates and lifting purchase restrictions in top-tier cities.
Source: moneyandbanking.co.th
