USD/CNH analysis: Goldman Sachs slashes China GDP estimate
2023-06-19 00:06:16 ET
The renminbi retreated sharply on Monday morning after Goldman Sachs downgraded China’s economic growth again. The USD/CNH exchange rate jumped to 7.15, the highest point since Wednesday. It jumped from last week’s low of 7.1072.
Goldman Sachs downgrades China
The Chinese economic recovery has turned into a mirage, as we wrote here . In a note, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that growth this year will be much lower than expectations. They see the economy growing by 5.4% in 2023, down from the previous 6%.
Goldman Sachs said that the strong recovery seen in the first quarter had fizzled out in Q2 and there is a likelihood that the situation will worsen.
Data published last week showed that the country’s youth unemployment rate jumped to a record high in May. At the same time, retail sales, industrial growth, and fixed asset investments grew at a slower pace than analysts were expecting.
As a result, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut a key interest rate in a bid to spur growth in the country. Analysts expect authorities to deliver more stimulus in the coming months.
The biggest challenge for the Chinese economy is that the real estate sector, which accounts for a third of the GDP, is taking longer to recover. Shares of key companies like Evergrande and China Resources Land are still under pressure. House prices have moved sideways in the past few months.
In another sign of the economic slowdown, Chinese e-commerce companies like JD.com and Alibaba failed to publish sales data of their annual sales blitz. Analysts believe that filing to publish these numbers meant that sales were not good.
USD/CNH chart analysis
The USD/CNH exchange rate has been in a bullish trend in the past few weeks after it dropped to a low of 6.7015 on January 13th. This recovery has seen it flip the important resistance point at 6.9988 into a support. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also jumped above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 7.300. A move below the support at 7.00 will invalidate the bullish view.
The post USD/CNH analysis: Goldman Sachs slashes China GDP estimate appeared first on Invezz .
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Source: investorsobserver.com
